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Florida Transportation Plan (FTP) and Strategic Intermodal System (SIS)

FTP/SIS / Alternative Futures

Alternative Futures

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Alternative Futures

The Florida Department of Transportation has developed five potential alternative futures for transportation in Florida. These potential alternative futures are featured in the FTP Vision Element and are intended to spur discussion about future transportation goals, objectives, and strategies.

Prerecession Trends Continue

Trend

Key Assumptions

Demographics

  • Continued strong population growth.
  • Aging, more diverse population.

Economics

  • Continued emphasis on agriculture, tourism, construction, services.

Land Use and Environment

  • Continue emphasis on lower density development.
  • Growing pressures on water and natural resources.

Technology

  • Current energy mix.
  • Incremental changes to technology.

Transportation System

  • Continue reliance on motor vehicles as primary mode of travel.
  • Return to historic growth rate in vehicle-miles traveled.
  • Continued reliance on inbound freight to serve large consumer market.

Florida as a Global Trade Hub

Trend

Key Assumptions

Demographics

  • Continued strong population growth.
  • Strong shift toward more diverse population.

Economics

  • Emphasis on trade, logistics, manufacturing, and related services industries.

Land Use and Environment

  • Growth in globally connected cities, particularly around air and sea gateways.
  • Growth in inland manufacturing and distribution centers.

Technology

  • Advanced logistics systems.
  • Larger freight vehicles/infrastructure.

Transportation System

  • Increased demand for moving people and freight through Florida’s air and sea gateways and along major rail and truck corridors.
  • Growth in long-distance travel.

Florida as an Innovation Hub

Trend

Key Assumptions

Demographics

  • Strong population growth.
  • Increasing skilled workers, millennials.

Economics

  • Knowledge-based and creative industries.

Land Use and Environment

  • Growth in urban centers and around universities and research facilities.
  • Live/work/play/learn neighborhoods.

Technology

  • Shift toward automated vehicles and other advanced transport systems.
  • Alternative, renewable energy sources.

Transportation System

  • Emphasis on travel choices within urban areas.
  • Connections between urban areas.
  • Some substitution of technology for travel.

Return to Focus on Agricultural and Rural Lifestyle

Trend

Key Assumptions

Demographics

  • Continued strong population growth.

Economics

  • Resurgence of agriculture
  • Emphasis on eco-tourism, specialized manufacturing.

Land Use and Environment

  • Some population shift from coastal to inland locations.
  • Revitalization of historic communities.

Technology

  • Renewable energy and other Florida-based energy sources.
  • Telecommuting, telemedicine, distance learning.

Transportation System

  • Continued growth in vehicle miles traveled; reliance on cars and trucks for accessing rural destinations.
  • More innovation and options for rural transport.
  • Increase in long-distance travel.

Slow Growth or No Growth in the Future

Trend

Key Assumptions

Demographics

  • Slowing in-migration.
  • Net loss of younger workers.

Economics

  • Loss of one or more key industries.
  • Stagnation or decline in number of visitors.

Land Use and Environment

  • Growth slows or stalls in some regions.

Technology

  • Current energy mix.
  • No widespread adoption of new technologies.

Transportation System

  • Stagnation or decline in overall vehicle miles traveled.
  • Some overbuilt/underutilized infrastructure.